Fiscal Position and Outlook

Overview

The Delta outbreak had a significant impact on the Government’s fiscal outlook, although this is largely contained to 2021-22. The 2021-22 Half-Yearly Review projects a budget deficit of $19.5 billion in 2021-22, which represents a $10.9 billion deterioration since the 2021-22 Budget.

This projection is driven by $18.2 billion in additional expenses, of which $13.7 billion is economic and social support funding provided in response to the Delta outbreak, including the JobSaver payment and $1.3 billion in 2021-22 as part of the $2.8 billion Economic Recovery Strategy. This has been offset somewhat by a $7.3 billion increase in State revenues, due to higher transfer duty, mining royalties, GST revenue and the Commonwealth contribution to JobSaver.

The Government’s long history of strong financial management enabled extensive policy support, while maintaining the Government’s record infrastructure program. As a result, the Government remains on track to achieve its key targets for fiscal recovery, including a return to a budget surplus in 2024-25 of $449 million.

The Government has also set aside $7 billion to invest in productivity reforms and as a COVID-19 contingency.

2021-22
Budget Result

-$ 19.5
Billion

June 2025
Net Debt

13.4% of
Gross State Product

2021-22
Infrastructure Program

$ 29.8
Billion

2024-25
Budget Result

$ 449
Million

June 2031
Net Debt

Towards 7% of
Gross State Product

4-Year
Infrastructure Program

$ 110.4
Billion

New South Wales Credit Ratings Update

Between September 2021 and November 2021, all three credit ratings agencies (Moody’s, Fitch and S&P Global) provided their credit rating opinion on New South Wales.

Both Moody’s and Fitch assigned the State a triple-A credit rating, the highest possible score, noting New South Wales' proven history of strong fiscal management. New South Wales also maintained its double-A plus rating with S&P Global. New South Wales is the only state in Australia to have a triple-A credit rating.

(a)Fitch does not provide a credit rating for Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania

Rebuilding the State’s Fiscal Capacity

As part of the 2020-21 Budget, the Government set two targets to guide rebuilding fiscal capacity and help ensure that the impacts of COVID-19 do not burden future generations.

The two targets are:

  • return to budget surplus by 2024-25
  • net debt towards 7 per cent of GSP over the medium term.

The 2021-22 Half-Yearly Review shows the Government is on track to meet both targets.

WestInvest

In September 2021, the Government announced WestInvest, a $5 billion program that will change the face of Western Sydney. The investment is put in place to significantly improve liveability – with a focus on economic, social, and green infrastructure.

Funding will be allocated to projects aligned to the six WestInvest themes:

  • quality green and open spaces
  • community infrastructure
  • school modernisation
  • arts and culture facilities
  • high street activation
  • local traffic programs.

To ensure funding is accelerated into projects that benefit the people of Western Sydney, the Government will be announcing its first tranche of approvals in early 2022.

Local communities will also be empowered to identify improvements and put forward projects. Community consultation will commence in early 2022.

Revenue Measures

Key revenue decisions or extensions since the 2021-22 Budget include:

  • waiving 50 per cent of 2021-22 payroll tax for businesses impacted by the Delta outbreak
  • deferring payroll and gaming machine tax payments to support business cashflows
  • COVID-19 land tax relief for landlords, supporting rental relief for tenants.

The 2021-22 Budget included the Government’s commitment of $490 million over four years to its nation-leading Electric Vehicle Strategy. This package of incentives supports the takeup of electric vehicles (EVs) in New South Wales and will be a key contributor to the State’s goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Since the Budget, the Government has committed a further $105 million of incentives over four years to accelerate the take-up of new EV purchases in private and local council fleets. This will help build the second -hand market for EVs in the future as fleet buyers typically replace their vehicles frequently and takes the State’s EV incentive package to $595 million.

Expense Measures

Major new policy measures since the 2021-22 Budget include:

  • $13.7 billion committed in response to the Delta outbreak (including up to $3.5 billion Commonwealth contribution to JobSaver), with more than $10 billion of support and assistance provided so far
  • $7 billion* set aside for future productivity reform and COVID-19 contingency
  • $5 billion* for WestInvest to deliver economic, social and green infrastructure, which will help support jobs and improve quality of life in Western Sydney
  • $2.8 billion for the COVID-19 Economic Recovery Strategy, to support those most impacted by the health and economic crisis of COVID-19
  • $1.1 billion to 2024-25 in additional allocation to Transport for NSW to be provided to rail operators, as part of updated shareholder expectations for Transport Asset Holding Entity (TAHE)
  • $839.3 million over four years in new funding for early childhood education and care services to support preschool participation under the Preschool Reform Agreement
  • $233.8 million over five years towards additional road safety initiatives, with the NSW Government resolute in its goal to reduce deaths and serious injuries on our roads
  • $29.1 million for the NSW Electoral Commission to respond to the impacts of deferred local government elections.

* includes capital investment